Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said it was too early to make sweeping predictions about the success or failure of the drug plan.

Economists say the Medicare drug plan should be a good deal for most seniors, since the government will pick up three-fourths of the total cost of the program. Beneficiary premiums averaging about $32 per month will cover the rest.

However, because of budget constraints, Congress designed a complicated benefit. For instance, it has a coverage gap — nicknamed the "doughnut hole" — between $2,250 and $5,100 of annual expenses. Seniors must purchase supplemental policies to cover that.

But that survey, a Wall Street Journal Online/Harris Interactive poll, was done using the Internet; of the 2,160 responses collected between Oct. 26 and Oct. 28, 290 were from seniors. The Kaiser poll, conducted by telephone between Oct. 13 and Oct. 31, found that 76 percent of the 802 seniors surveyed said they had never been online.

In the Kaiser survey, only 39 percent of Medicare beneficiaries said they thought the drug plan would benefit them personally, while 49 percent said it would not.

The Kaiser poll found that the sickest seniors were more likely to say that they will enroll. Among those who take more than four prescription medications a day, 25 percent said they would sign up. However, only 16 percent of those who take one to three medications daily said they would get the coverage.

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