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As Ford's financial situation has grown worse this year, Ford execs have steadfastly refused to ... Weakened Ford might see pro
The finance unit has provided hefty profits even when the rest of the company has lost money. Ford Credit has reliably churned out tens of billions of dollars in much-needed cash for decades.
But with Ford Credit's finances weakening due to its ties with Ford, a revitalized competitor on the horizon and a growing need for billions of dollars to fund Ford's Way Forward turnaround plan, analysts say the company might have little choice but to seek buyers for a sizable chunk of Ford Credit.
"If you're in the middle of accelerating the Way Forward, it's expensive, and you need the money," said Kevin Tynan of . "Longer term, you'd like to be able to count on earnings from Ford Credit, but at the same time you need to finance this restructuring."
Ford's board of directors is to meet today and Thursday to consider ways to speed the restructuring plan. Ford Credit spokeswoman Chris Solis said Tuesday there are no plans to sell Ford Credit and that the unit "is a strategic asset of Ford Motor Co. that generates solid profits and dividends."
The unit might draw little scrutiny from many corners, but its health has been a top priority for Ford because it writes the loans or leases for 44% of Ford's U.S. vehicle sales. After earning $2.9 billion in 2004, Ford Credit earnings dropped to $2.5 billion last year and fell to $920 million for the first six months of 2006.
To lend money to customers to buy Ford vehicles around the world, Ford Credit will need to borrow about $40 billion to $50 billion from banks, bond investors and other sources this year. Ford Credit used to raise most of the money it needed by selling corporate bonds, but as Ford Motor's finances have worsened, rating agencies have cut Ford Credit's to below investment grade, or junk, status.
But several analysts say there are only so many magic tricks Ford Credit can pull off before its borrowing costs begin to choke off the business. analyst Eric Selle estimates that higher borrowing costs have cut $500 million off Ford Credit's earnings in the first six months of this year.
"For them to have a competitive finance company, they need access to broader capital sources than what they currently have," said Craig Hutson, an analyst with . Over three to five years, "they need to obtain higher (credit) ratings, and we think it's unlikely that, as part of Ford Motor Co., they'll be able to do that."
The template for a Ford Credit sale is GMAC. expects to receive $10 billion upon the close of its sale of a 51% stake in its financing arm to a coalition of private investors, with an additional $4 billion to come over the next three years. The deal could close by year's end.
GMAC, also with a junk investment rating, expects to improve its status thanks to separating from GM, allowing it to lower its borrowing costs. GMAC executives have talked of growing through selling services to non-GM dealers.
Selle estimates that Ford could raise $7 billion from a 51% stake in Ford Credit, compared with $1.5 billion from a sale of its Aston Martin, Jaguar and Land Rover brands. But other analysts say Ford might have a harder time than GM, because GMAC had healthy sources of income outside car loans, such as mortgages and insurance.
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