The bill is coming due for years of generous benefits bestowed upon the nation's public employees, and it's a stunner: hundreds of billions of dollars over the next three decades.

California will almost certainly owe more than any other state, threatening to bankrupt local governments and all but guaranteeing cuts in services like education and public safety.

These staggering numbers are coming to light because of new accounting rules issued by the Government Accounting Standards Board. They require public agencies to disclose the future cost of health care and other benefits - such as dental, vision and life insurance - promised to retirees alongside traditional pensions.

"There will be horrific financial implications," said Steven Frates, president of the Center for Government Analysis in Newport Beach. "More money will be needed for providing health care benefits that could otherwise be used for fighting fires or keeping libraries open."

According to preliminary estimates, keeping California's approximately 2.3 million active and retired employees healthy through their sunset years could cost taxpayers more than $200 billion over the next 30 years.

"When you start putting these costs on the books and understand what they involve and the size of the obligation - it's big," said Marian Mulkey of the California Healthcare Foundation's Health Insurance Program. "Either way they have to pay for it or somebody has to go back on their promises."

Retiree health care costs have been quietly mounting for decades while public agencies have passed out generous retirement benefits during labor negotiations - often in lieu of salary increases. But government negotiators rarely considered the long-term financial consequences of awarding such perks, according to Brian Whitworth, a retirement benefits specialist with JP Morgan Chase and Co.

"A surprising number of public entities didn't even make informal estimates of long-term costs prior to the new accounting rules," Whitworth said.

Many cities and state agencies already are struggling to fully fund their pension obligations, but experts say those liabilities pale in comparison to the debt accumulated for other retirement benefits.

Last month, JP Morgan released what it considers the most comprehensive preliminary estimate. It projects the present nationwide value of unfunded health care and other non-pension benefits at between $600 billion and $1.3 trillion.

As for California, the state controller is just now beginning a detailed study. But preliminary estimates show the state will owe $40 billion to $70 billion to cover the health care costs of state employees alone. Add in the costs accrued by more than 6,400 local governments, school districts and other government agencies, and the total could reach $200 billion.

"There's a good chance some government entities are going to go bankrupt," said California Assemblyman Keith Richman, a Republican from Chatsworth. "But the issue isn't just bankruptcy, it's governments dying of a thousand cuts in services. The costs of promises that have been made are going to be astronomical."

"This is a monumental problem and government is going to have to deal with it," said Steve Regenstrief, head of the retirement division at the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

Government does not pass out lucrative post retirement benefits on a whim, says Debbie Endsley, acting chief deputy director of the California Department of Personnel Administration, which negotiates state labor contracts for the governor.

The Government Accounting Standards Board is an independent nonprofit organization that establishes accounting standards for public agencies. Seeing a need to bring public sector disclosure rules in line with those of the private sector, the board unveiled the rules change in 2004 and gave governments until 2008 to implement them.

The new rules don't require governments to come up with the money right away, just to disclose the present value of these future costs and estimate how much more money is needed to pay for them. To prepare for these disclosures, public officials across the country already are beginning to calculate how much they might owe.

"When the numbers are produced, they're going to be shocking," said Ronald Snell, director of state services for the National Conference of State Legislatures. "They'll be in the hundreds of billions, and it's definitely something that policy-makers are going to have to take notice of and act upon. ... There are consequences of decisions made in the past."

So far, California, New York, and Maryland appear to have the biggest burdens, but that could change when estimates begin trickling in from Florida, Texas, Illinois and Pennsylvania. Of the country's 10 most populous states, none has completed a formal estimate of their liabilities, but those that have completed preliminary assessments are reporting astounding numbers.

-New York's preliminary analysis puts state liabilities between $47 billion and $54 billion. In a recent budget report, the state acknowledged "these costs are substantial and would significantly reduce or even potentially eliminate" New York's current $49.1 billion in positive net assets.

-Other states also have reported significant amounts: Alabama estimates $19.8 billion, Massachusetts $13.2 billion, Alaska at least $7.9 billion, and Nevada between $1.62 billion and $4.1 billion.

Many local governments also are beginning to acknowledge huge liabilities. The City of San Francisco reported its burden at $4.9 billion, and the Los Angeles Unified School District said its liability is $10 billion.

"This isn't Chicken Little," says Lou Filliger, a partner in the Southern California actuarial firm of Demsey Filliger & Associates. "It's wrong to panic and it's wrong to put your head in the sand and ignore the liability altogether. The middle ground of responsible funding is the way to go."

When the new accounting rules take effect, taxpayers will be able to see for the first time just how much they're paying to provide benefits to active and retired state and local public employees. How this will impact individual citizens depends upon the size of their government's obligation and how it's handled.

At the least, experts say, the public can expect increased taxes and fees or reduced public safety and public works services as governments adjust their budgets to amortize the debt.

Some officials have taken a proactive stance, moving to rein in the costs of retirement benefits by establishing employment "tiers" mandating longer vesting periods for full benefits, requiring retirees to pay larger portions of their health care costs, and reducing or eliminating benefits for new employees altogether.

"Limiting future growth of (health care) liabilities will become a contentious issue in negotiations," said Suzi Rader, director of district and financial services for the California School Boards Association.

John Abraham of the American Federation of Teachers said union negotiators have long been aware that future retirement benefits must be paid from shrinking resources.

"If they haven't been looking at the numbers, shame on them," he said. "Do we recognize there is a cost problem? Absolutely. As costs have gone up we've made accommodations."

Lori Moore, spokeswoman for the International Association of Fire Fighters, said nothing is really changing except the need for cities to reveal how much they'll owe in non-pension retirement benefits.

Most governments now fund retiree health care on a pay-as-you-go basis, with annual appropriations from their general funds, focusing most of their attention on current expenses.

Under the new accounting rules, the liability can be paid over 30 years, just like a home mortgage, but it forces public officials to recognize the debt and calculate an annual payment.

If officials choose not to set aside additional money each year to cover the payment, it counts against net assets, potentially putting a city or agency deeper into the red. Because assets are a critical component in the credit ratings that allow governments to borrow money at lower interest rates, Wall Street will be paying close attention to the coming disclosures. Standard & Poors warned that retiree health care liabilities were "an increasing credit concern."

Parry Young, director of public finance at Standard and Poors, said few governments are prepared for the annual contributions they'll be expected to make.

"It's been a growing liability that wasn't being addressed. But now the chickens are coming to roost," he said. "For some it's going to be a big credit issue depending upon what resources they have."

Young says one way governments can get a jump on their liabilities is by putting more money into retiree health care plans, something that is "easier said that done."

Over the past decade, California's local leaders have frequently turned to Wall Street for solutions to their pension problems. And bonds could again become an integral part of the funding strategy for the retiree health care crisis.

Oakland's Peralta Community College District became the first in California to issue bonds to cover its liability last December. This summer, Eastside Union High School District in San Jose followed suit.

But using bonds to fund long-term obligations only increases the burden on taxpayers. With interest, the $153 million in bonds issued by Peralta will eventually cost taxpayers $512.3 million over their 45-year lifespan.

Tom Smith, Peralta's vice chancellor for finance and administration, said the bonds were structured to accommodate both existing retiree obligations and debt service payments the district could afford. And employees hired by Peralta since July 2004 do not receive lifetime health care benefits.

Some public agencies are doing just that. The Elk Grove School District near Sacramento established a trust in 1995 that today contains $33 million earmarked for retiree health benefits. Oxnard Unified High School District established a trust in 1999, following protracted negotiations with the teachers union, and it now contains $20 million.

The California School Boards Association also recently received IRS approval to operate a multi-employer OPEB trust and is talking with 100 districts about joining. The California State Association of Counties Finance Corp. has also established a trust.

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